March Madness

The field of 65 is set for the annual NCAA college basketball tourney otherwise known simply as March Madness. Number 1 seeds went to Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and Connecticut, with upsets brewing in multiple match ups. Far from last year's tourney, which featured all the #1 seeds advancing to the Final Four, this year's edition promises an uncertainty and everything from the improbable to the impossible which gave the tournament its moniker.

While a #16 seed may not topple a #1 this year, there remain several upset possibilities in every region. And with the topsy turvy regular season which has featured upsets galore, or extreme parity depending on your viewpoint, including an unranked Michigan squad ( currently a #10 seed) beating then top #5 ranked powerhouse Duke ( now a # 2 seed). With this in consideration, on any given day, between any two given teams, any given player can get hot and lead their team to a monumental team. This is the one time of year when David regularly topples Goliath, where teams like Western Kentucky and Cleveland State have national relevance.

Historically, there has been a major perception that upsets occur more often in certain seeded matchups than others. The #5-#12 or #6-#11 first round game usually produces an upset somewhere in the 4 regions, and this year may be no exception. The #12 seeds this year include well coached, strong basketball programs such as Arizona, Wisconsin, and one of last year's Cinderellas Western Kentucky who hope to make a return visit to the Sweet 16. Expect #12 seed Arizona, led by NBA ready guard Chase Buddinger, to give #5 seed Utah all kinds of trouble and possibly pull the traditional 5-12 upset.

The formula for success in the NCAA tournament has remained constant, regardless of talent level or program size. Great guard play and veteran experience and leadership tend to give a team the edge, with 3 point shooting a HUGE factor in the outcomes of most early round games. This was evidenced by last year's surprise Davidson, which was led by Stephon Curry. They missed the tournament this year, but they proved with good guard play and 3 point shooting a team can advance far beyond the restraints of its talent level. This makes teams like #6 seed UCLA, featuring a veteran guard corps led by Darren Collison and Josh Shipp and a team 3 point percentage of over 40%, and #4 seed Gonzaga, with every starter capable of draining the long bomb, terrors to play in this single elimination format.

Although the NCAA format for deciding the basketball national champion is the fairest way, at least compared to the other NCAA sports, to crown the national champ, the best team does not win all the time. In 1996, with #13 seed Princeton out of the Ivy League facing defending champs UCLA, the Ivy League boys took down the Bruins on the strength of what CBC commentator Gus Johnson would later claim as, "Guys who never made 3s were making 3s. It seemed like every player who played for Princeton that day had the best of their career." The George Mason team, which won the Patriot League to enter the tournament, advanced to the Final Four, and in the process destroyed millions of brackets, will always remain a great story and set a new standard for mid majors across the country. But no one will say that they were better than the UConn squad, which featured future NBA stars such as Hakim Warrick, who they upset to reach the Final Four. Perhaps they were better that day, but if those two teams met 10 times UConn would likely win 9 out of the 10. But that remains the beauty of March Madness. You don't have to best team with the best players or the best coach to win. If #3 seed Kansas stumbles and loses, again, to a #14 seed, this year's edition is North Dakota State, no will say that North Dakota St. is a better team and more talented then the Jayhawks. They were simply the better team on that day.

So when filling out your brackets keep in mind that its not the seeding or the talent level which is the predictor of winners and losers. Watch out for where the venue of the game is located. Fan support can mean the difference between a 1 point win and a 1 point loss, and this same support can lift a #11 seeded VCU squad over an experienced UCLA team on any given day. Keep in mind that someone can get hot and shoot their team to an undeserved upset. Names like Syracuses's latest reincarnation of Gerry McNamara, Devandorf, and Purdue's sharpshooter, Robbie Hummel, will be kicked around about million times from now until the end of the tournament if their teams advance on virtue of the 3. And above all never expect anything. While last year all the top seeds advanced, this year has featured upsets left and right, and one again, the moniker March Madness is not simply a token title. Just like George Mason shocked the world two years ago, a team like Cleveland State may do the improbable. Remember, anything may be improbable but nothing is impossible.

And if anyone's looking for a $5 pool to join, see Eugene Park, for those who go to Northview High School, for a bracket.